How are people sizing the demand for AI chips right now?

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There's so much noise in the market and analyst reports vary wildly. Curious what data sources or approaches others are actually trusting.

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Wei Zhang · Answer

Honestly the most reliable signals I've seen come from cross-referencing hyperscaler capex guidance (AWS, Azure, Google) with TSMC/ASML earnings calls — those supply chain players tend to be more candid than pure analyst estimates. Semi-custom orders and CoWoS packaging capacity are good leading indicators too. The wildly varying reports usually differ because they're mixing inference vs. training demand, which are on totally different trajectories right now.

How are people sizing the demand for AI chips right now?

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