How do you forecast demand for a new chip when the market is this volatile?

Honestly in this environment I'd lean heavily on scenario-based forecasting — build a bear/base/bull case tied to specific demand triggers (EV adoption rates, grid investment cycles) rather than chasing a single number. We've been pairing that with supply chain lead time data from distributors like Digi-Key to cross-check whether demand signals are real or just restocking noise. Bottom-up design win tracking from your client's sales pipeline is also gold if you can get access to it.