How do you forecast demand for residential solar in new markets?

Start with a top-down cut using census housing data + local electricity rates + solar irradiance (NREL's PVWatts tool is free and solid). Then layer in adoption curve benchmarks from similar markets — California and Germany are often used as proxies for early vs. mature penetration. Cross-check with utility interconnection queue data if available; it's a great leading indicator of actual install activity.