Aerospace and Defence Market Intelligence in 2024: Geopolitical Headwinds, Space Commercialisation, and the Research Imperative

A Sector at the Intersection of Power and Innovation

Few industries encapsulate the intersection of geopolitical strategy, technological ambition, and commercial opportunity quite like aerospace and defence (A&D). The global aerospace and defence market was valued at $925 billion in 2023 and is forecast to exceed $1.3 trillion by 2030, driven by sustained defence budget increases across NATO member states, a commercial aviation recovery that has exceeded pre-pandemic projections, and the explosive growth of the commercial space economy. According to Morgan Stanley, the space industry alone is projected to generate revenues of $1 trillion annually by 2040, up from approximately $380 billion today.

For market researchers and analysts working in this domain, the challenges are as distinctive as the opportunities. The A&D sector is characterised by long procurement cycles, opaque government contracting processes, strict security classifications, a highly concentrated supply chain, and dual-use technology considerations that complicate open-source intelligence gathering. This article examines the current state of the aerospace and defence market, key research methodologies adapted for this unique environment, and the strategic questions that should be driving research agendas in 2024 and beyond.

The Geopolitical Dimension: Defence Spending Surges and Market Implications

The most significant demand-side shift in the A&D market over the past two years has been the dramatic escalation of defence budgets globally. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a generational reassessment of defence posture across Europe. Germany's historic Zeitenwende policy committed an additional €100 billion to defence modernisation, and NATO members collectively moved closer to — and in several cases exceeded — the alliance's 2% of GDP spending target. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military expenditure reached a record $2.24 trillion in 2023, the highest level ever recorded.

For market researchers, this creates a complex but rich intelligence landscape. Key questions include: Which platform categories are receiving disproportionate investment? How are procurement timelines accelerating or decelerating under political pressure? What does the expansion of the European defence industrial base mean for incumbents like Airbus Defence & Space, BAE Systems, Leonardo, and Rheinmetall, versus emerging challengers?

Research Priority: Analysts should closely track budget documents from national defence ministries, NATO capability targets, and the US Department of Defense's Program Acquisition Cost by Weapon System report — all of which provide valuable open-source signal on programme prioritisation.

The commercial aviation segment presents a contrasting dynamic. Boeing and Airbus face order backlogs stretching beyond a decade, with Airbus alone holding over 8,600 aircraft on order as of early 2024. Supply chain constraints — particularly in engines, aerostructures, and avionics — are creating significant delivery delays that represent both a pain point and a research opportunity for analysts serving MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul) providers and lessors.

The Commercial Space Economy: Research in an Emerging High-Growth Segment

No discussion of A&D market research in 2024 is complete without substantive engagement with the commercial space economy. What was once dominated by government programmes and national space agencies — NASA, ESA, Roscosmos — has been fundamentally transformed by the emergence of vertically integrated commercial players. SpaceX's Starlink constellation has demonstrated that satellite broadband is a commercially viable mass-market product; the company now operates over 5,000 satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). Meanwhile, Amazon's Project Kuiper, OneWeb, and a host of new entrants are competing for the LEO broadband market, while downstream applications in Earth observation, precision agriculture, and maritime tracking are generating new B2B revenue streams.

Conducting market research in this segment requires researchers to navigate a partly public, partly private information environment. Key methodological considerations include:

Patent landscape analysis: Tracking filings with the USPTO and EPO in propulsion, satellite miniaturisation, and in-orbit servicing reveals R&D investment priorities ahead of commercial announcements.
Regulatory monitoring: The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the US, and the ITU globally, publish spectrum allocation and launch licensing data that can be used to map competitive positioning and expansion plans.
Primary research with dual audiences: Space market research requires engaging both government/institutional buyers (space agencies, defence ministries) and commercial customers (telecoms operators, Earth observation data buyers, launch service customers).
Scenario planning frameworks: Given the long development horizons and technology uncertainty in space, scenario-based approaches — modelling optimistic, base case, and pessimistic market development paths — are more appropriate than single-point forecasts.

Methodological Adaptations for the A&D Research Environment

Standard B2B research methodologies require meaningful adaptation when applied to aerospace and defence. The researcher must contend with several sector-specific constraints:

Small, expert populations: The universe of decision-makers in defence procurement and aerospace engineering is relatively small and highly specialised. Traditional panel-based quantitative research is often impractical; instead, depth interviews with 10–25 carefully screened experts frequently yield more actionable intelligence than large-n surveys.
Security and confidentiality sensitivities: Respondents in defence contexts may be legally prohibited from discussing certain programme details. Researchers must design discussion guides that extract strategic insight without requesting classified information, and must use appropriately secure data handling protocols.
Procurement cycle mapping: Understanding where a programme sits in the DOTMLPF-P (Doctrine, Organisation, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities, and Policy) framework used by US DoD, or the equivalent acquisition frameworks used by UK MOD or NATO, is essential context for interpreting research findings.
Expert network dependency: Given the depth of expertise required, A&D researchers frequently rely on specialised expert networks. Platforms like Avascent, Frost & Sullivan's Defence Practice, and Jane's by S&P Global provide structured access to defence industry expertise and proprietary data.

Key Trends Shaping the A&D Research Agenda

Several converging trends should be central to any 2024–2025 A&D research programme:

Autonomous systems proliferation: Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), and loitering munitions have been elevated from niche capability to mainstream procurement priority. The conflict in Ukraine has provided a dramatic real-world proving ground, and allied nations are accelerating acquisition programmes accordingly.
Hypersonic weapons development: The US, China, and Russia are all investing heavily in hypersonic glide vehicles and cruise missiles. Research tracking programme status, industrial supplier bases, and countermeasure development is in high demand from both defence contractors and government clients.
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF): With aviation accounting for approximately 2.5% of global CO2 emissions, the pressure to scale SAF production is intensifying. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has set a target for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, and SAF is expected to account for 65% of the mitigation contribution. This creates significant research opportunity around supply chain development, cost curves, and policy enablers.
Digital engineering and model-based systems engineering (MBSE): Major platforms including Lockheed Martin's F-35 and Boeing's T-7A Red Hawk have demonstrated the value of digital engineering approaches. Research on adoption rates, integration challenges, and workforce capability requirements is highly relevant for both contractors and their technology partners.

Actionable Recommendations for A&D Market Researchers

To maximise the quality and commercial impact of aerospace and defence research, practitioners should adopt the following practices:

Invest in building a proprietary expert contact network of retired military officers, former programme managers, and defence industry executives who can provide contextualised intelligence that open-source data cannot deliver.
Use structured analytic techniques (SATs) borrowed from the intelligence community — such as Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) and Red Team analysis — to stress-test research conclusions and avoid confirmation bias.
Establish a systematic budget tracking process, monitoring annual defence budget submissions, supplemental appropriations, and continuing resolutions in key markets (US, UK, France, Germany, Australia, India) to identify spending trend signals early.
Integrate geopolitical risk assessment into market sizing models. A&D demand is uniquely sensitive to security environment changes; ignoring geopolitical scenario analysis in market forecasts produces dangerously narrow projections.

"In aerospace and defence research, what you cannot ask directly is often more revealing than what you can. The skill lies in constructing research architectures that triangulate toward truth from multiple indirect angles."

Conclusion

The aerospace and defence sector presents market researchers with a uniquely demanding but intellectually rich operating environment. The confluence of geopolitical volatility, technological transformation across commercial aviation and space, and the accelerating integration of AI and autonomy into defence systems creates both urgent demand for high-quality intelligence and formidable challenges in producing it. Researchers who master the sector's unique methodological requirements — small expert populations, security sensitivities, long procurement cycles, and geopolitical complexity — will find themselves operating in one of the most commercially valuable and strategically significant corners of the global research industry.