Defence Budgets, Dual-Use Technologies, and the Shifting Centre of Gravity in Aerospace Market Intelligence

A Sector at the Intersection of Geopolitics and Innovation

The global aerospace and defence (A&D) market is experiencing a period of sustained and accelerating investment not seen since the Cold War era. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military expenditure reached a record $2.24 trillion in 2023, representing a 6.8% real-terms increase — the steepest annual rise in over a decade. On the commercial aerospace side, Airbus and Boeing collectively hold a combined backlog of over 14,000 aircraft, reflecting a commercial aviation recovery that continues to outpace even the most optimistic post-pandemic projections.

For market intelligence professionals operating in aerospace and defence, this environment creates a uniquely demanding research context. The sector is characterised by long procurement cycles, classified information constraints, a small universe of sophisticated buyers, and regulatory environments that vary significantly across NATO member states, Indo-Pacific partners, and non-aligned nations. Producing research that is both analytically rigorous and operationally useful in this context requires specialised methodological and ethical competence.

The Dual-Use Technology Boom and Its Research Implications

One of the most consequential trends reshaping A&D market intelligence is the blurring boundary between commercial and military technology. Autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, hypersonic propulsion, and advanced materials are simultaneously transforming commercial aviation and military capability development. The global military drone market alone is projected to grow from $14.1 billion in 2023 to $47.7 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 12.9%, according to Mordor Intelligence.

This dual-use dynamic has profound implications for how market researchers structure competitive intelligence programmes. Traditional A&D research siloed military and commercial aviation as entirely separate domains. Today, tracking technology transfer pathways — understanding how companies like Joby Aviation, Shield AI, or Palantir Technologies move innovations between civilian and defence applications — has become a critical analytical discipline. Researchers must monitor not only defence procurement databases like USASpending.gov and the EU's TED (Tenders Electronic Daily) but also commercial patent filings, SBIR/STTR award databases, and venture capital flows into deep tech.

Expert Perspective: The most significant intelligence gaps in aerospace and defence research today exist at the intersection of commercial innovation and military application. Organisations that only monitor defence procurement are systematically blind to where capability advantages are actually being built.

Primary Research Constraints and How to Navigate Them

Conducting primary research in A&D presents access challenges that are largely unique to the sector. Decision-makers at prime contractors like Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Raytheon Technologies, and Northrop Grumman operate under strict information security protocols. Many senior procurement officials within ministries of defence are prohibited from participating in third-party surveys or interviews without legal review. This makes traditional primary research methodologies — online surveys, telephone interviews, focus groups — significantly less effective than in most commercial sectors.

Experienced A&D researchers have adapted by developing several alternative approaches:

Conference intelligence: Events such as the Paris Air Show, Farnborough International Airshow, DSEI, and Eurosatory represent rare moments of relative information openness. Systematic capture of presentations, product announcements, and executive statements at these events provides primary intelligence that supplements desk research.
Expert network interviews: Platforms like GLG (Gerson Lehrman Group), AlphaSights, and Guidepoint provide access to recently retired defence officials, procurement specialists, and programme managers who can speak freely about institutional dynamics and technology preferences.
Scenario-based research methods: Because direct questioning about capabilities or procurement intentions is often restricted, scenario planning workshops with industry stakeholders have proven an effective alternative. These allow researchers to elicit strategic preferences and risk perceptions indirectly.
Open-source intelligence (OSINT) frameworks: Methodical analysis of job postings, patent databases, corporate annual reports, and regulatory filings can reveal strategic intentions that primary research cannot access directly.

Market Segmentation Frameworks for Aerospace and Defence

Effective segmentation is essential to producing actionable A&D market research. The sector resists conventional B2B segmentation approaches because organisational size and revenue are poor proxies for procurement influence. A more effective framework segments by procurement authority structure, distinguishing between:

Sovereign procurement entities (national ministries of defence operating under frameworks like the U.S. Federal Acquisition Regulation or the UK's Defence and Security Public Contracts Regulations), prime contractors (who act as quasi-sovereign in managing tier-1 and tier-2 supply chains), and commercial operators (airlines, MRO providers, and satellite operators whose purchasing decisions drive civil aerospace volumes).

Within the commercial aviation segment, researcher should distinguish between full-service network carriers, low-cost carriers, and regional operators, as their technology adoption timelines, maintenance philosophies, and sustainability investment appetites differ substantially. Delta Air Lines and Lufthansa Technik, for instance, have very different MRO market behaviours than Ryanair or IndiGo, despite operating in ostensibly the same industry.

Emerging Research Priorities: Space Economy and Urban Air Mobility

Two sub-sectors deserve particular attention from A&D market researchers in the coming five years. The commercial space economy, estimated at $546 billion in 2023 by Space Foundation, is growing at a pace that traditional aerospace research infrastructure is ill-equipped to track. New entrants such as SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and a burgeoning constellation of government space agencies in the UAE, India, and Japan are reshaping the competitive landscape faster than most annual research cycles can capture.

Similarly, the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) market — encompassing electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft and urban drone delivery — represents a genuine discontinuity that will require new research frameworks. Morgan Stanley projects the AAM market could reach $1 trillion by 2040. Research programmes that can credibly assess regulatory readiness, infrastructure development timelines, and consumer acceptance of autonomous air vehicles will be in exceptional demand from both investors and incumbents.

Recommendations for A&D Market Intelligence Professionals

Build regulatory fluency: Familiarity with frameworks from ITAR, EAR, and the Wassenaar Arrangement is essential for understanding what technologies can be traded with which partners — a critical variable in market sizing exercises.
Develop OSINT capabilities: Invest in tools like Palantir Foundry, Crayon, or even bespoke Python-based scraping frameworks to systematically harvest publicly available competitive intelligence.
Engage with industry associations: The Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), ASD-Europe, and the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) publish critical benchmark data and provide access to industry networks.
Integrate geopolitical risk analysis: A&D market sizing without scenario modelling for geopolitical discontinuities — Taiwan Strait tensions, Middle East escalation, NATO cohesion — produces fundamentally incomplete outputs.