How do you forecast demand for sustainable packaging materials?

For a quick starting point, check out Smithers' sustainable packaging market reports and the Euromonitor packaging database — both have solid category-level forecasts you can sanity-check your estimates against. I usually layer that with a bottom-up approach: map your client's current SKUs, look at competitor adoption rates, then apply a price elasticity adjustment since biodegradable materials still carry a premium. If you can get even 10-15 customer interviews early on, that'll tell you more about real switching intent than most secondary data.