The Last-Mile Revolution Is Just the Beginning: What Market Researchers Are Missing About Transport and Logistics

A Market in Metamorphosis

There is a tendency among market researchers to treat transport and logistics as an enabling infrastructure sector — important, but fundamentally reactive to the demands of the industries it serves. That view is dangerously outdated. The global logistics market, valued at $9.1 trillion in 2023, is undergoing a structural transformation driven by e-commerce growth, geopolitical supply chain realignment, electrification of freight, and artificial intelligence — and it is increasingly a sector where research-driven competitive advantage matters enormously.

Yet the research community has been slow to develop the specialized methodologies and industry-specific frameworks that logistics and transport deserve. Too often, standard B2B research templates are applied to a sector with unique buyer journeys, complex multi-stakeholder procurement processes, and performance metrics that are deeply quantitative and operationally specific. In this opinion piece, I want to make the case that transport and logistics is one of the most intellectually demanding and commercially significant research terrains available — and that the researchers who crack it will be indispensable to the companies navigating this transformation.

The Data Gap in Logistics Research

One of the defining challenges of market research in transport and logistics is the scarcity of reliable, granular market data. Unlike consumer goods markets, where point-of-sale data and loyalty card databases provide rich behavioral intelligence, freight and logistics markets are fragmented, often operating through opaque intermediary relationships between shippers, freight forwarders, carriers, and third-party logistics providers (3PLs).

The global 3PL market alone is projected to grow from $1.3 trillion in 2023 to over $2.1 trillion by 2030, at a CAGR of 7.1% (Fortune Business Insights). Yet research coverage of this segment is dominated by a handful of major analyst firms — Armstrong & Associates, Transport Intelligence (Ti), and Gartner — whose reports, while authoritative, are often priced out of reach for mid-market clients and lack the primary consumer research component that would round out the picture.

This data gap creates both a problem and an opportunity. Researchers who can build proprietary primary research capabilities in logistics — accessing the actual procurement managers, operations directors, and C-suite executives who make carrier and 3PL selection decisions — can deliver intelligence that simply cannot be found in off-the-shelf reports.

"The companies that will win in logistics over the next decade are not those with the most assets, but those with the best information — about customer needs, competitor capabilities, and emerging technology. Market research is no longer a nice-to-have; it's a strategic weapon."

Why Last-Mile Is Only Part of the Story

The research and media focus on last-mile delivery — accelerated by the pandemic-era e-commerce explosion — has been largely warranted. Last-mile costs account for 41% of total supply chain costs, according to McKinsey & Company, and innovations in this space — from drone delivery pilots by Amazon Prime Air to autonomous delivery robots deployed by Starship Technologies across university campuses — are genuinely disruptive.

But fixating on last-mile misses several equally significant transformation vectors that deserve serious research attention:

Middle-mile electrification: The electrification of medium and heavy-duty trucks is advancing faster than many predicted. Tesla's Semi, Freightliner's eCascadia, and Volvo's FH Electric are beginning to establish commercial track records. Research into fleet operator decision-making around EV adoption — total cost of ownership calculations, charging infrastructure anxiety, driver acceptance — is urgently needed and poorly served by existing studies.
Digital freight brokerage: Platforms such as Convoy, Flexport, and Transfix have digitized spot freight procurement, introducing price transparency and dynamic matching capabilities that are reshaping carrier-shipper relationships. How do logistics procurement managers evaluate and trust these platforms? What drives platform switching? These are rich research questions with significant commercial stakes.
Nearshoring and supply chain resilience: Post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and US-China trade tensions have catalyzed a significant geographic reconfiguration of manufacturing and logistics networks. Mexico's logistics sector, for example, grew 14% in 2023 as nearshoring investment accelerated. Research teams advising logistics companies on market entry or expansion need sophisticated frameworks for assessing regulatory environment, infrastructure quality, and labor market dynamics in these emerging corridors.
Sustainability pressure from shippers: Scope 3 emissions accounting requirements are forcing large shippers — from Unilever to Amazon — to demand verified emissions data from their logistics providers. This is creating a new competitive dimension in carrier and 3PL selection that researchers must incorporate into buyer journey mapping and RFP analysis frameworks.

The B2B Research Methodology Gap

Logistics is overwhelmingly a B2B market, and this creates methodological challenges that are distinct from consumer research. Standard online panel surveys are largely useless for reaching logistics procurement decision-makers at the required quality level. LinkedIn-based recruitment, executive interview panels managed through specialist B2B research agencies, and account-based research designs are more appropriate — but also more resource-intensive.

I would argue that the single most underused methodology in transport and logistics research is the in-depth customer journey study that maps the full complexity of a logistics procurement decision. These decisions often involve multiple stakeholders — procurement, operations, finance, sustainability, and IT — with different evaluation criteria and levels of influence. A simplistic survey of "the logistics manager" misses this organizational complexity entirely.

Journey mapping studies that combine stakeholder interviews with process observation and document analysis (RFP templates, carrier scorecards, contract terms) yield a far richer understanding of how logistics buying decisions are actually made — and where suppliers can most effectively differentiate and intervene.

Technology as Both Research Subject and Research Tool

AI and machine learning are transforming logistics operations — and also transforming logistics research. On the subject side, the AI-in-logistics market is projected to grow from $6.2 billion in 2023 to $46.5 billion by 2030 (MarketsandMarkets), with applications spanning route optimization, demand forecasting, warehouse automation, and predictive maintenance. Researching decision-maker attitudes toward AI adoption — the barriers, the trust dynamics, the ROI evidence requirements — is among the most commercially important research questions in the sector today.

On the tool side, data analytics platforms are enabling researchers to synthesize publicly available freight rate indices (such as the Freightos Baltic Index for container shipping or DAT Trendlines for US trucking spot rates) with proprietary survey data to triangulate market conditions with greater precision than either data source alone could provide. Researchers who are fluent in both primary qualitative methods and quantitative data analytics have a significant advantage in this space.

What the Research Community Needs to Do Differently

To close the capability gap in transport and logistics research, I would offer the following recommendations to research professionals and firms:

Build sector-specific sampling infrastructure: Invest in recruiting and maintaining verified panels of logistics professionals — fleet managers, freight forwarders, warehouse operators, and supply chain directors — rather than relying on general B2B panels that offer poor representation of this sector.
Develop quantitative fluency in logistics metrics: Understanding cost-per-mile, on-time delivery rates, dwell time, tender acceptance rates, and carbon intensity per tonne-kilometer is essential for designing credible research instruments and interpreting findings in context.
Partner with industry associations: Organizations such as the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT), the International Federation of Freight Forwarders Associations (FIATA), and the American Trucking Associations (ATA) provide both access to industry participants and credibility signals that can significantly improve research recruitment and response quality.
Embrace longitudinal tracking: Logistics markets are highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, fuel prices, and regulatory changes. Quarterly tracking studies that monitor carrier capacity, rate sentiment, and technology adoption intent provide far more strategic value than annual one-off studies.

Conclusion: The Researchers Who Lean In Will Win

Transport and logistics is not a glamorous research category. It lacks the cultural resonance of consumer brands, the media buzz of fintech, and the academic prestige of healthcare research. But it is a sector of profound economic significance, undergoing transformation at a pace that creates enormous demand for high-quality intelligence. The market researchers willing to develop genuine sector expertise — fluency in operational metrics, deep networks among logistics professionals, and methodological creativity in accessing hard-to-reach B2B audiences — will find it among the most rewarding and commercially valuable spaces in which to build a practice.